Live for now or leave for a better future (part 2)

Hello, hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas celebration with your loved ones. This is part 2, to continue from the last post on popular reasons why investors buy Unit Trusts in Singapore. The list is not exhaustive, but if you have never invested in UTs and you are curious to find out how UTs can add that extra dimension in your investment portfolio, we can get in touch.

 

Remember Einstein said the ultimate level of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again but expecting to receive a different result. If you belong to the other group that have invested in UTs for a few years but is not satisfied with your investment portfolio or the banker/relationship manager’s recommendations of the Unit Trusts and you will like to see a change in 2016, I would also love to hear from you.

 

Happy reading and wishing you and your loved ones a Happy, Healthy and Huat 2016 ahead!

D. Possible to use CPF OA/SA and SRS

Investing in UT is popular in Singapore because of the option to use our CPF OA (Ordinary Account), CPF SA (Special Account) and SRS (Supplementary Retirement Scheme) to make investments. Any balance above $20,000 in the CPF OA and $40,000 in the CPF SA can be invested. I urge investors to be careful in the use of CPF SA to invest as the current interest the CPF Board pays is 4% per annum for CPF SA balances and 2.5% for CPF OA because if the investor uses the CPF SA, he/she is giving up a risk-free guaranteed rate of 4% to invest in an instrument that may not give the same amount of returns after charges or worse still may have negative returns.

 

I encourage all Singaporeans, Permanent Residents and also foreigners with a taxable income of $60,000 or more per annum to open a SRS account. Based on the Singapore income tax rates for 2014, anyone with a taxable income of $60,000 in the previous year needs to pay approximately $1,950 in taxes. If he/she contributes to the SRS the annual maximum allowable contribution for Singaporeans/PRs of $12,750 presently, then his/her tax for that year will only be approximately $1,057.5, a savings of $892.50. For a foreigner who can contribute up to $29,750, and assuming he/she does that, then for the same $60,000 taxable income, he/she only needs to pay $208.75 in taxes, significantly lower than $1,950!

 

All these calculations are made without including the personal tax rebate of up to $1,500 or 30% rebate for taxpayers below age of 60 and 50% for taxpayers above 60 (whichever rebate is lower) because we do not know when and if the Singapore Government and Ministry of Finance will stop extending this rebate. Higher income earners with taxable income >$160,000 a year will benefit even more with SRS contributions. At $160,000, they will be paying approximately $13,950 in taxes. Assuming they make the current maximum SRS contribution of $12,750, their tax payable will drop to $12,037.50: a fantastic savings of $1,912.5. This equates to a 15% impressive tax savings on $12,750, very attractive considering there are no investments giving guaranteed returns of even 6% p.a. now.

 

The Ministry of Finance announced in Budget 2015 that they will raise the current ceiling for voluntary SRS contributions for Singaporeans and PRs to $15,300 and $35,700 respectively. This is good news for investors already contributing the maximum of $12,750 every year; they will get to enjoy more tax savings if they contribute more with the revised ceiling from 1 Jan 2016.

 

Other than the obvious tax savings for SRS contributions, monies in the SRS can also be used to invest in UTs, shares, ETFs, REITs, insurance, etc. If the monies were left untouched, the returns will only be the prevailing rate of ordinary savings account of the SRS operator, which has been 0.1% to 0.2% per annum for a long time and will never beat inflation. Total SRS contributions have been increasing steadily over the last 13 years from S$160 million in Dec 2001 to S$4,890 million in Dec 2014. (2001 to 2014 SRS statistics from the Ministry of Finance.) This is probably due to most SRS holders continuing to contribute the full amount every year after they have made their initial contribution and this trend seems set to continue.

Source: http://www.mof.gov.sg/Portals/0/MOF%20For/Individuals/SRS%20Cumulative%20Statistics%202014.pdf

E. Longevity and popularity for dividends as passive income

Many Singaporeans love to invest in REITs since the first REIT was listed in Singapore in July 2002. There is a UT, Philip Singapore Real Estate Income fund which has a few listed REITS in its holdings. Started in Sept 2011, this UT has a fund size of approximately S$44.77 million as of 21 Dec 2015 and holds a portfolio of over ten Singapore industrial, office and retail REITs. The quarterly dividends that this UT has been paying out is between 15 to 16.1 cents per unit, which is about 5.21% per annum assuming no sales charge and the purchase price of $1.1959/unit. For $100,000 invested, the dividend payout will be approx $5,210 a year, a pretty decent stream of passive retirement income for most Singaporeans who are worried they will outlive their savings due to their longevity.

 

Although the dividend rate of 5.21% for Philip Singapore Real Estate Income UT is lower than the average dividend payout of 7.36% among the 35 REITs in the last quarterly payout in Dec 2015, the advantage of the UT over a single counter REIT is the diversification across different class of Singapore Real Estate. As of Oct 2015, its portfolio consists of 31.46% retail, 28.65% industrial, 9.53% offices and 7.74% hotels, the rest are mixed developments and cash, therefore greatly reducing the risk of a particular sector of real estate not doing well and also potential single company key executive or management risk.

F. Opportunity cost of inaction

Singapore’s average interest rate from 1988 to 2014 was 1.68%, hardly able to be on par with our inflation rate of approximately 2.8% from 1962 to 2014. I would think the post-global financial crisis in 2008 marked the start of an era of low interest rates for developed nations. In fact, there is a double whammy situation: we have both lower and lower interest rates, if we compare the decades from the 80s to the 90s to 2000s, and rising inflation rates on the other hand.

 

Ask any lower- and middle-income household in Singapore and many will say that inflation felt more like 3% to 4% per annum. Although Singapore’s interest rates had risen in 2015 and likely continue into 2016, taking a cue from US Fed Chief Ms Janet Yellen’s move to raise US interest rates in Dec 2015, it is unlikely we will be able to see SGD Fixed Deposit rates returning to more than 4% per annum any time soon. Warren Buffett once said, “The one thing I will tell you is the worst investment you can have is cash… Cash is going to be worth less over time”. People who hold cash equivalents today may feel safe, but they have opted for a terrible long-term asset that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value.

 

Thus if Singapore investors remain passive and keep their monies in savings accounts and fixed deposits, in the long term they are unlikely to beat real inflation rate, which is typically higher than many ASEAN neighbours. We know Singapore is a small nation vulnerable to cost-push inflation as we import most of our food, raw materials, oil and energy, etc. Persistently high rates of inflation year on year will lead to companies adjusting the selling price of their goods and services very often, which in turn leads to employees demanding pay raises etc, causing a vicious cycle.

 

From 2006, the rapid increase in Singapore’s population also led to raised demand and inflationary pressures on basic goods like public housing and utilities, and an increased strain on the transport infrastructure leading to higher COEs for all form of vehicles and public transport fee hikes. Thus depositors who have their monies in savings accounts in the banks experienced a decline in their real purchasing power of goods and services. For investors with a concern to guard their wealth and investments against rising inflation can consider the Fidelity Global Inflation-linked bond UT.

 

This UT’s objective is to generate an attractive real level of income and capital appreciation by using a range of strategies from within, amongst others, the global inflation linked, interest rates and credit markets. The UT was started in July 2008 and has delivered approximately 1.7% per annum, not factoring sales charge. The returns are nothing to shout about because the last 3 to 4 years, inflation did not grab headlines and also global oil prices are soft.

The writer Derek Gue, is a financial strategist and can be contacted at bwutbook@gmail.com to give personalised advice on your UT portfolio. The above article is extracted from his bestselling book Huat Ah! Building wealth in Singapore with Unit Trusts, now available at all good bookstores in Singapore.

Live for now or leave for a better future?

Ho, Ho, Ho, it is the time of the year to be merry and spend to reward yourself for working a long, hard year and also buy gifts to pamper yourself and your loved ones. At least, that is what retailers and marketing ads want us to do.

 

Pause a little, are we spending and enjoying too much for the present moment, and neglect to save for our future? Do we still remember the benefits of delayed gratification and a dollar saved is a dollar earned?

 

Well, instead of Christmas and year end shopping for clothes, electronics, etc. Why not consider year end Christmas shopping for Unit Trusts (UTs) especially if you have made your Supplementary Retirement Scheme (SRS) contribution for this year. Instead of buying expensive toys for your child, consider saving some money into UT for your child’s future needs. Instead of paying thousands of dollars for expensive overseas tours, consider other tourists have spent thousands visiting our country and our attractions especially our Botanic gardens that has won the UNESCO World Heritage Award. Why not save the thousands of dollars and bring them for a unique SG islandwide tour?

 

If you agree with some of the points earlier, I will also share more reasons of why people buy UTs in Singapore. This article is extracted from my bestselling book Huat Ah! Building wealth in Singapore with Unit Trusts, now available at all good bookstores in Singapore.  I will share 6 out of the 11 points found in the book, first 3 points in part 1 and the last 3 points in the next post.

A. Lack of time and knowledge

As all investment decisions (what, when, at what price and how much to buy and sell) are all made by a professional unit trust (UT) fund manager with analysts’ inputs; all the investor needs to do is to select a UT with an investment objective that he or she understands and is confident will appreciate in the near future. Many working adults cite this as one of their top reasons for investing in UTs.

To address the lack of time and knowledge, some investors chose to buy UT via a representative, like myself. The investor will have fewer choices to make as the licensed professional representative would have shortlisted, filtered out and made recommendations on suitable UTs after a round of fact-finding to better understand the investor’s objectives, risk appetite, investment time horizon and current portfolio, etc.

To overcome a lack of knowledge, investors can read investment books, download free research articles, and attend free educational seminars and talks from online UT platforms. Investors will then be poised to make more informed decisions once they have greater knowledge of current affairs and economic news, as well as an understanding of a UT’s investment philosophy, top holdings and geographical regions.

 

B. Diversification

Many investors prefer UT over stocks for its diversification benefits for the same amount of capital invested. A typical regional equity UT can have exposure to equities in more than eight countries. Country diversification is important as there may be country specific risks like political crisis, interest rate risk, currency risks, economic risks due to natural disaster, etc.

Hence by investing in a UT with exposure to several countries, specific country risks are greatly reduced. Regional- and country-specific UTs also enjoy sector diversification benefits: they can have exposure to over six different sectors of the economy. The usual heavyweight sectors in most UTs are financials, consumer discretionary, IT, healthcare, etc.

When the investor invests in a UT, he/she trusts the fund manager to be up-to-date on the news affecting the different sectors of the economy in the country and act to grow the value of the UT and consequently the UT’s NAV per unit. The benefits of good sector diversification are important as different sectors of the economy perform better during different market phases. All these diversification benefits from only $1,000/fund to get started. Unbelievable!

 

 C. Clear and independent structure

UTs that are marketed for sale in Singapore are established by a trust deed, which sets out the roles and parties in the UT structure. With the trustee and auditors independent of the fund managers keeping close tabs on where, what, why and how the fund manager manages the monies and complies within the fund mandate and investment objectives, investors can sleep better knowing that checks and controls are in place.

The setup of the roles and parties in the UT structure gives it an edge over individual company securities. Consider the regularity with which the public hears about frauds, rigging, accounting scandals, etc. taking place, even in big listed organisations. It is less likely with UTs. Even if one of the security within the UT is investigated for suspected fraud or mis-managements, and comprise a substantial percentage (assuming 8% of the total UT assets which is already very rare, unless it is an emerging market single country UT), the UT’s NAV may just drop slightly as they still have 92% of the UT’s AUM in other securities. The only exception is an industry-wide or sector-wide fraud. In such a case the UT’s NAV obviously will take more of a beating.

Selling UTs in Singapore is a highly regulated activity by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) as representatives of Financial Advisors have to pass exams and be of good financial standing and good moral integrity. Sellers of other types of investments, like land banking, wine investments and other forms of multi-level marketing products are definitely much lesser regulated.

—-Stay tuned for Part 2. Merry Christmas to you and your loved ones. 🙂

Are you missing out to accumulate wealth because of the misperceptions people tell you about Unit Trusts?

Today, anyone can do a quick internet search for “Unit Trusts” (UT) and thousands of hits will appear. As we know, not all information on the internet is reliable, and there are many half-truths about investing in UT. Like every financial product, UT has its fair share of supporters and naysayers, I will like to attempt to dispel some of the common misperceptions from the general public and experienced UT investors, and offer the other side of the coin for the discerning investor to consider so that you may consider UTs in your investment portfolio to accumulate wealth and be more financially-free.

This article is extracted from my bestselling book Huat Ah! Building wealth in Singapore with Unit Trusts, now available at all good bookstores in Singapore.  I have shared 5 points out of the 8 points found in the book.

A. High UT fees reduces profit and increases loss

The upfront fees, annual management fees and other applicable fees are all costs to the investor and will certainly reduce his/her net profits. If costs are the greatest concern to the investor, he/she should buy UTs online, instead of meeting up with a representative of the distributor. He/she can also buy UTs that track the indices, examples of UTs in Singapore that track the indices are: Infinity European Stock Index, Infinity Global Stock Index and Infinity US 500 stock index. They are passively managed and feed into the Vanguard European Stock Index fund (tracks the MSCI Europe Index), Vanguard Global Stock Index fund (tracks the MSCI World Free Index) and Vanguard US 500 Stock Index Fund (tracks the Standard & Poor’s 500) respectively.

 

These three UTs from the Vanguard Group track and replicate the index and will thus have lower costs, compared to their active fund manager counterparts. Almost all UTs in Singapore are actively managed, making the three Infinity UTs the minority.

 

Most investors will not mind paying higher fees as long as the performance justifies it. An analogy can be found with gym users: there are always clients who would rather pay more to get a personal trainer to motivate and structure the training to see results faster. Buying UTs through a representative or actively managed UTs certainly entails higher upfront fees compared to the online purchase of UT and passively managed ETFs.

 

However, UTs are not long-term commitments compared to insurance plans and if after two to three years, the investor feels there is little benefit or the services of the representative does not meet expectations, he or she can easily transfer the holdings out to another platform with lower fees or to another rep to manage.

B. UT returns are too slow and too little

Most UTs hold over 30 securities/companies; this obviously leads to slower returns than individual stocks. However, as a result of holding many companies diversified across different sectors of the economy, most UTs typically drop less dramatically than individual stocks during a recession. Better managed UTs may drop less than their benchmark.

 

That UT returns are slow and too little is not entirely wrong. This is because, unlike other wealth instruments like FX (currency) or shares, etc., it is not possible to use leverage, margin trading or contra to invest in UTs in Singapore. The investor must pay the upfront sales charges in full to invest in UTs sold in Singapore, only when the monies are cleared can the fund manager make purchases. This makes UT less ‘sexy’ and more suitable for a medium-term investment of at least three years. However I have never heard of anyone in Singapore going into debt, becoming bankrupt or even committing suicide because of UT investments.

 

Investing in UT is boring; it hardly gives investors 5% returns in a single day, less common of 15% in a single week and rarely do any UTs in Singapore benefit from merger and acquisition news or stock buyback news to see their NAV soar over 50% in a single month. However, George Soros once said: “If investing is entertaining, if you’re having fun, you’re probably not making any money. Good investing is boring.” The investor needs to be conscious of whether he/she is investing or speculating.

 

Many investors remember the Singapore penny stock crash saga in Oct 2013 when the share price of Blumont, Asiasons and LionGold tumbled almost 90% in a week, because of Blumont’s management’s inability to satisfy SGX enquiry of how they grew their market value over ten times in just 18 months. Blumont shares used to be 2 cents a share, with a single lot (1,000 shares) costing $200 in Mar 2012. On 1 Oct 2013, before the speculative bubble burst, it was $2.50 a share, and a single lot would cost $2,500 (an amazing growth of 12.5 times or doubling investors monies 3.5 times in only 1.5 years). Blumont’s share closed at 1.9 cents on 24 Dec 2014 and investors were back to square one. Greedy speculative investors with a punting mentality who bought many lots at more than $2 and held on until today are still badly burnt especially when the closing share price on 20 November 2015 is just $2 for 1 lot or a thousand shares (that is a drop of 1,250 times from its peak price). The gains from shares, especially penny stocks, can be very fast and tempting and is even more dangerous if leverage is used. I have never heard of any UT sold in Singapore with a peak and trough as dramatic as these penny stocks.

C. Fund managers are restricted by the UT’s investment objectives

The other criticism of traditional UTs is that fund managers must keep to the investment objectives even during recessions. For example, they have to stay invested even when the price of their companies free fall, cannot sell out, and are mostly not allowed to hold >10% in cash any point of time. The fund manager has to adhere strictly to the investment mandate and objectives at all time, otherwise the trustee has to report it to the regulators. There are two sides to every coin and the good thing about UT fund managers having to walk a tight rope and constantly being supervised by the trustee with regular audits is that it safeguards investor monies; otherwise many of the fund managers will have absolute power and liberty to invest in any company they desire. This certainly sounds like a red flag and I will urge investors to better stay clear of unregulated/low supervision investments.

 

To circumvent this restriction, the investor can first take advantage of the free switching offered by a wrap account or fund switching that all UT platforms have and switch out to Money Market (MM) or short duration high grade bond UT. MM UTs are known to preserve value and maintain high liquidity to give returns on par with SGD deposits. The investor can switch out of equity UTs entirely into MM UTs at any time to take shelter before or in the early days of the recession.

 

The other way to address this concern is to own a diversified portfolio of UTs with investment mandates that give the fund managers more room to invest so long as they maximise total returns in the long run. The investor will have to look carefully at the UT factsheet and study the UT objectives and holdings well, or they can consult their Reps. An example is the Hedge Fund UT that can make money for the investor even in a bearish market (Man AHL SGD Trend). Another example is a multi-asset UT like (Blackrock Global Allocation fund), where the investment objectives states there is no prescribed limits to the percentage of equities to bonds that the fund can hold as they adopt a flexible investment style. An observation about this UT as at end of September 2015, they were holding 22.8% of the total fund size of US$22 million in cash equivalents, an uncommonly high percentage for most Singapore UTs. Thus investors who want their monies to be managed by fund managers with greater autonomy with a more flexible mandate can choose UTs like the Blackrock Global Allocation fund.

D. Investors should buy UTs with bigger fund sizes

People tend to equate having more and being bigger as being more successful, for example, restaurants with more outlets must be more popular and have better food? However, does this hold true in the investing world? For big fund size UTs, with billions in Asset Under Management (AUM), there may be benefits associated with economies of scale, such as sharing of management fees, transactions costs, opportunities especially for bigger bond fund UTs (where certain MNCs or countries will prefer to borrow $500 million from one source versus $100 million from five different sources).

 

The question of whether a fund is big in its size is relative to the investment objectives and style of that particular UT. Some UTs investing in large cap companies (companies with a net market value above US$1 billion) may function better if they have a bigger fund size whereas UTs that specialise in buying small and medium cap companies may see performance suffer by having too big a fund size.

 

To give an example, two UT fund managers, one managing $100 million AUM and the other managing $500 million AUM, both decided to invest 10% of their AUM in a certain company. The fund manager about to invest $50 million may face more problems because the market value of small and medium cap companies is smaller, meaning $50 million will be more likely than $10 million to drive up the share price and create speculative problems.

 

Fund managers with bigger AUM investing in smaller and medium cap companies will thus have little choice but to spread their investments across more companies, some of which may not exactly be among the manager’s first choice. The UT managers will also not want to buy too much equity in single small-mid cap companies, which may result in them having a controlling stake, and hence management responsibilities, in the company.

 

Being small can be beautiful too, as fund managers can be more nimble and can afford to be more selective in buying companies as their resources are limited. For example, take Warren Buffett, who first started Buffett Associates Ltd with six other investors and approximately US$105,000 capital in May 1956. The first 20 years saw phenomenal growth of those pioneer investors’ funds. He famously lamented in 1999 that he could generate higher annualised returns if only he had lesser monies (he coined it the “fat wallet challenge”).

 

It is good to look at current fund size of the UT before investing and investors should be more concerned if there is a change in either direction of the fund size. Too rapid a drop in fund size would get the attention of most investors as it could signal an impending recession, or outflow to a competitor UT. Fewer investors are aware that too rapid a growth in fund size could spell trouble as well, especially for UTs with objectives that invest in small to medium companies as it may cause performance to be diluted.

 

More investment funds will pour in rapidly when the UT receives awards or gets mentioned by renowned analysts. Distributors will tell its sales force to sell that particular UT. This may cause the best years of the UT to be behind them and could be a signal for investors to switch to another UT because managing $20 million and aiming for a 6% annualized growth is certainly easier compared to managing $200 million and expecting the entire $200 million to also grow at 6%. Therefore, I will advice it is not size that matters but if the fund size is optimal for the category and investment style of UT; volatile investment inflows and outflows in their fund size may in fact disrupt the strategy of the fund manager. Hence big or small size funds have pros and cons, and it is more important for investors to keep a lookout, identify and monitor the UT’s fund size closely every two to three months.

E. UTs are always cheaper and more value for money at launch

Many investors ask me if they should buy new UTs at launch. I advise them to wait at least two to three months for the fund house to produce their first fund factsheet. Without this, investors do not have factual information on the UT’s top 10 holdings, track record and fund size, meaning they will not know the expense ratio, etc.

 

UT new launches are different from a company IPO (Initial Public Offering) because, unlike IPOs of companies where the number of ordinary shares to be offered is fixed as the valuation of the company was already done, UTs can issue an indefinite number of new units. Therefore it is rare and almost impossible for a new UT launch’s NAV/unit to rise to a premium on the first day, regardless of the buying or selling activity and level of over or under subscription to push up/down the NAV/unit.

 

In Sept 2014, the Ali Baba IPO closed higher by 38% at the end of its first trading day but I do not think many UTs will even close higher by 3.8% at the end of its first full week of inception. At the end of the first day, the UT portfolio is represented as 100% cash with no securities to have an appreciation in the NAV; moreover there are costs for the launch, management fees, etc.

 

There are pre-launch costs most UTs have to incur: marketing and advertising campaign to broadcast their launch, legal and regulation costs, printing costs, etc. These costs can exceed a few million dollars, which is amortised over a period of time as expenses of the UT and invariably will reduce the NAV/unit.

 

Another reason against buying new UTs at launch is that they are probably overpriced. Most new UTs are launched when markets are bullish on that particular theme or sector or region. It is easier to launch and market a UT at a time when the investment objective is ‘hot’ and ‘in’ so response to the launch will be good and the fund manager can raise more funds. This also means that the prices of the underlying companies in the UT holdings are more expensive since it is a bull market and these are current flavours of the market.

 

If the UT raised a big capital as its initial fund size, it may lead to bigger problems because most fund managers are restricted by the mandate to hold under 10% of the fund size in cash. Therefore he/she has to invest the initial large sum of cash in a rising market to purchase the companies, which at present could be overvalued especially if the UT was launched near to the peak of its market cycle.

 

Lastly, do not invest just because of the sales charge discount or vouchers that the distributor or the fund managers usually offer for newly launch UTs. Look at the fundamental objectives of the UT as well as look through the prospectus and background of the fund managers. The investor can proceed to invest if he has done all the research and feels that the UT launch is only at the start or middle of the recovery phase, and there is still plenty of future upside to the NAV of the fund, coupled with the promotions and other savings at launch.

 

The writer Derek Gue, is a financial strategist and can be contacted at bwutbook@gmail.com to give personalised advice on your UT portfolio. .

4 reasons why YOU are in TROUBLE if you buy Unit Trusts (UT)…

1. without knowing your objectives clearly before you buy them or if you do not understand the fund’s objectives

The key to a good start and a happy investment experience is to understand your investment goals crystal clear (is this investment for retirement, or your child’s education, or for the downpayment of a car, etc.), its required time frame, and your risk tolerance for that goal. A rule of thumb is if you are older or you have a shorter time frame from now until the goal, should go for something with lower risks.

You should also understand a UT’s investment objectives and risks, and ensure that they are in line with your personal investment objectives along with understanding the UT’s fees and charges. You can read up on the fund manager’s background and track record, especially his/her funds’ performance during different market cycles comparing them with other peer UTs managed by other fund managers of similar objectives whenever possible. Although past performance is not indicative of future performance, it does not hurt to see the consistency of the fund manager’s track record during his/her tenure managing the UT. If the UT has a track record of over ten years, look at how it performed during periods of crisis (the post Sept 2001 terror attack, the SARs period in Mar 2003, the 2008 global financial meltdown and the latest 2012 Eurozone Austerity crisis).

Other than studying the fund manager’s background and the UT’s record, it’s important to also look at the fund house, as it is the organisation the fund manager and their team of analysts are working for. More established fund houses have an impressive track record of generating decades upon decades of stellar performances from the systems and human experience they have built up during numerous market cycles. It’s good that you do your due diligence and check these points before purchasing any UT.

2. to follow the herd

Remember the old Wall Street investment adage: “No trees grow to the sky”. Another reason investments sour is because some investors follow published information and chase after past top performers in the form of single country or single sector UTs that have performed very well in the past. No matter its past performance, no investment offers a guarantee of replicating its performance infinitely. Since economies are cyclical in nature and go through phases, any sector/country that had already performed well in the last few quarters and years may be on the verge of becoming a laggard. Conversely, a laggard sector or country UT may be on the verge of a turnaround after restructuring its economy or after certain political changes or technology advances.

When investors buy stocks, many like to look at the Price/Earnings per share ratio (P/E) for the price other investors in the market are willing to pay for the company’s share for each dollar of earnings. A high P/E ratio indicates the stock is overpriced assuming ceteris paribus. It must be noted at this point to compare P/E ratio of companies within the same industry as each industry represents different growth prospects (e.g., financial companies should not be compared against utilities companies). Usually equities that were the flavors of the year or top returns last year will have very high P/E ratio, inviting questions as to whether the company can still generate earnings growth in line with its share price growth. Likewise, for equity UTs, because it is made up of a portfolio of companies often in different sectors in their holdings, P/E ratios cannot be used in the same way. Instead I suggest you to look at the current NAV of the UT they have shortlisted and compare against the 1 year, 3 years and all-time high and low NAV to get a good indication whether the UT’s current NAV is overpriced.

You should then be forward looking and ask at which stage is the global economy now and where are the next growth countries/regions or sectors to invest in them instead of past flavours of the year. For example, you are optimistic on single country Korean equities growth, believing that as USA economy recovers it will likely demand more electronics and cars (Samsung and Hyundai) and you only wish to invest in SGD currency. You can use the search/filter tool to sift out UTs invested predominantly in Korean equities: (Franklin Templeton Korea fund, HGIF Korean Equity and LionGlobal Korea fund), so just like comparing P/E ratios within industry, you should compare 1-year, 3-year and all-time high NAV vs current NAV among similar UTs.

Timing the market is another classic form of herd mentality investing. Many people think that by studying charts and trends or by following the investments of their friends or colleagues who attended technical analysis courses, they will be able to successfully time and beat the market. In reality, no one has either successfully timed the market ten out of ten times or predicted when exactly markets will peak and trough. Not even the legendary investor Mr Buffett, who famously said, “People that think they can predict the short-term movement of the stock market, or listen to other people who talk about timing the market, they are making a big mistake.”

Therefore what is more achievable than timing the market is to diversify across different asset classes, geography and sectors; investing in regular intervals; and regular portfolio review with rebalancing.

3. with an excessive risky or excessive conservative mentality

Neither of these two opposing approaches toward investing will make you very successful over time. Excessive conservatism is displayed by people who never want to invest and save all their money in the bank; but with current low interest rates banks offer for deposits, coupled with high inflation rates, the saver will find it hard to attain real growth of wealth in 20–30 years.

Excessive risk taking should also be discouraged, even if it is on a hot tip recommended by friends or the broker. When given a hot tip, you should remember the first rule of investing: only invest with monies that you can afford to lose. If it is a volatile investment above the usual acceptable risk tolerance and it keeps you up at night, it is considered as excessive risk. Using leverage to achieve greater gains but with risks above one’s level of comfort is another form of excessive risk taking that must be avoided. Even Buffett famously said he would not sacrifice his sleep for the chance of extra profits through leverage.

Instead of becoming overly fearful or overly greedy, you must develop both financial reasoning (the science of investing), as well as be guided by intuition, risk-taking and inventiveness (the art of investing). Analyse the top 10 holdings of the UT individually, find out more about the geographical allocation of the UT, and ask yourself if you see future growth in that economy. If the investment currency of the UT is not in SGD, analyse other currencies too. For example, one could study USD/SGD or EUR/SGD historical charts for exchange rates or read some currency’s analyst outlook. Use the analyst reports as a reference and importantly, consider if it is sensible and accurate.

4. and do not monitor your investments or have a trusted Financial Advisor Rep (FAR) to work with you.

Some investors neglect to review their portfolio or perform at least one annual rebalancing; if markets are turbulent, the review and rebalance should be done more frequently. Although buy and hold strategy still has its place in the 21st century, a portion of the investor’s monies can be placed in an actively managed and constantly rebalanced account, overseen by a FAR. This account can contain the more volatile regional equities, single country and single sector UTs that requires closer and constant monitoring.

Many analysts and experts have said that market cycles have become increasingly shorter with more wild swings. This is due to technological advances and super computers executing hundreds of trade in a second, which was unheard of prior to the nineties. Information is now everywhere, and fund managers and big investors react to financial news in an instant. Not monitoring your investments regularly is costly and you do not want to be left holding that UT after 50% or more of other investors have sold their investments and the music had stopped.

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The writer Derek Gue, is a financial strategist and can be contacted at bwutbook@gmail.com to give personalised advice on your UT portfolio. The above article is extracted from his bestselling book Huat Ah! Building wealth in Singapore with Unit Trusts, now available at all good bookstores in Singapore.

Welcome to my Site ;-)

Dear Reader. Thank you for taking time to read this.

The reason for the birth of this website was the 3 life changing experience I went through in August 2013 to June 2014.

29 August 2013 changed my family’s lives. We were about to return from our holiday in Manila when my mother suffered a brain stroke. She spent the next 13 days in ICU and the next 125 days in a ward and subsequently in a Rehab Hospital. Thankfully she had very good insurance coverage.

After two years, she still suffers from dyslexia and her right side is still paralyzed.  I felt that I was not able to provide well for her when she is able-body; I just hope that she will get to see her son’s accomplishments to publish a book, to be a trainer/speaker and inspire more young lives and to have a more successful financial planning practice very soon.

21 May 2014, 4.39pm. Another life changing event in Taipei, my fiancee and I were having our Mee Suah at our favourite Chen Ji Mee Suah, a short 6 mins walk away from LongShan Temple. We heard a few ambulances with sirens speeding past us.

Brushing it off as a traffic accident initially, we continue to eat. Later then I realized it was a stabbing that started at 4.25pm from LongShan Temple to Jiangzicui Station. So we must have been either on the same train as the accused or only 1 train before travelling in the same direction, but he took action at the next stop after we alighted. What a close brush with death! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Taipei_Metro_attack

It set me thinking life is very fragile and can end in an instant. Being in the wrong place at the wrong time could be fatal. Hence plans that was previously shelved for many years like; write and publish a book, start a website and be a trainer got fast forwarded to Now!

NAC_2014_org

30 May to 1 June 2014. I attended the National Achiever’s Congress and heard many international renowned speakers share their lives and their secrets of success that inspired me to step out and step up from my own comfort zone.

Nick Vugicic’s sharing was even more emotional and left me so inspired, that whichever card fate has dealt him, he is able to overcome adversity and challenges and live a purpose driven life and accomplished so much. We were both born in the same year 1982 and I left the talk asking questions of my own life and what I have done, and more importantly going forward in what areas can I contribute more?